Carmichael claims don't play out
Financial evidence in a Queensland court suggests the proposed Carmichael coalmine in the Galilee Basin would operate at a loss and not bring the public money it promises.
The evidence was presented in the Queensland Land and Environment Court hearing on the proposed Carmichael project by Rajesh Gupta, Adani’s local financial controller and Tim Buckley, financial analyst called by Land Services of Coast and Country (LSCC), the environmental group seeking to block the mine.
Gupta admitted during cross-examination that the company would seek to minimise its tax obligations, as many big mining forms do.
Buckley said his analysis of Adani's financial model showed the company had overestimated both the coal price and the yield, while underestimating the mining and transport costs.
Adani appears to have ignored the cost of interest on its debt entirely, Buckley claimed.
Using Adani’s own financial model, Buckley said a conservative estimate would see the Carmichael mine lose $9.4 billion.
Such a loss would mean the mine would not pay the $22 billion in taxes and royalties Adani repeatedly claims it will generate.
Experts say it would still be liable for $3.3 billion in royalties, but would pay no tax if it records a loss.
Funding for one of the world’s largest planned coal mines has come under scrutiny again too.
Adani’s parent company Adani Enterprises is undertaking a restructure that will carve off ports and power assets into separate companies, which has thrown its ability to pay for the project into question.
Buckley says that Adani’s coal holdings in the Galilee Basin will become a stranded asset, stuck needing about $2.8 billion in financing for just the first stage of construction.
It still needs $2.7 billion in financing for a rail line and trains to operate on it.
“Its restructuring - which reduces Adani Enterprises’ market capitalisation from $11.8 billion to $2.5 billion - means its odds of attracting financing for the Australian proposal is that much more remote,” Mr Buckley told RenewEconomy.